Three people have said they will run for Shreveport mayor this year. In the near future, there will be four in the ring.

Mayor Adrian Perkins is set to seek a second term. As of Feb 23, he is delinquent in filing a 2021 campaign financial report, and his current campaign balance is unknown.

Jim Taliaferro, a mayoral candidate in 2018, announced last year he will seek a second term. His latest Ethics Administration filing shows $20,000 in campaign funds.

Tom Arceneaux recently announced his mayoral campaign. His campaign account exceeds $116,000.

Mario Chavez is expected to soon announce a mayoral bid. He has yet to open a mayoral campaign account.

Whether or not another well-known individual will throw their hat in the ring is an open question. Many leaders in the black community who are looking for a strong candidate have yet to find one that they believe is electable.

As the incumbent, Perkins will have an advantage over any challengers, although how much of an advantage is debatable. Many politicos believe his electability stock has seriously declined throughout the city.

Perkins beat the incumbent, Ollie Tyler, joining Keith Hightower as the only challenger to a sitting Shreveport mayor to be successful. Perkins was basically an unknown when he announced.

His success was attributable to many factors: a new face with a great life story, hard work against a complacent incumbent, two Republican candidates who cancelled each other out, and mobilization of the under-40 voters, both black and white.

The new kid on the block magic is gone, and so is much of the enthusiasm that his 2018 campaign both generated and enjoyed. Now he has a record as mayor, which can be perceived as "good" or "bad," depending on one's perspective.

An incumbent definitely has an advantage in fundraising.

The city's vendors will generally write campaign donation checks as well as those seeking to be awarded contracts from the city. It’s called the price of doing business with the city.

And the "usual” players will send in money if for no other reason to continue their membership in the "important people club." Those seeking to be included in that group can also be counted on to align themselves with the incumbent.

Money is critical to any political race. It may be more important this year if a non-black candidate is to beat out Perkins, a black Democrat.

Race and political party have been the dominant electability factors in all Shreveport mayoral races to date. Whether or not this will be the case this year is the unknown that is currently being debated by political observers

Taliaferro and Arceneaux are both white Republicans. Taliaferro is currently a Caddo commissioner. Arceneaux has previously served two terms on the Shreveport City Council.

Taliaferro is more known to Shreveport voters because he has previously run for citywide positions: city marshal and mayor. Arceneaux is more connected to the downtown business community and heavy hitters in southeast Shreveport.

Undoubtedly, Taliaferro and Arceneaux are facing the same white Republican vote-splitting scenario that pitted Taliaferro against Lee O. Savage in the last election. This could result in the same song, different verse at the polls in the November primary, depending on the field of candidates.

Chavez is a Republican Caddo Commissioner. He is Hispanic.

The big unknown will be the impact of the Chavez campaign. Chavez will separate himself from all others for one, if not two, primary reasons.

For starters, he is Shreveport's first Hispanic/brown candidate to seek mayor. When he first ran for the Caddo Commission, he was the first Hispanic to seek political office in northwest Louisiana.

Secondly, Chavez may not run as a Republican, which is his current voter registration. Thus, he may become a pioneer for the second time because "no party" and "independent" candidates have not been successful in Shreveport elections.

Much like Perkins, Chavez has a compelling life story, and he is a military veteran. He has established a successful business, which he can tout on the campaign trail.

Perkins and Chavez are under 45 years old. Taliaferro and Arceneaux are both almost 70. They all look their age, which can be a campaign positive or negative.

The big question will be if Taliaferro, Arceneaux or Chavez can get a substantial support in the African-American community. Put another way, will the "average" black voter seriously consider a non-black, non-Democrat candidate?

Past mayoral elections in Shreveport have followed racial lines to a large extent, with white voters being much more receptive to a black candidate than black voters to a white candidate. Whether or not that has changed for this election, plus the impact of a "brown" candidate, are the big unknowns for this election.

After Perkins' so-called upset of Tyler by Perkins, many observers question if a sitting Shreveport mayor can be elected for a second term. The city's changing demographics, aging infrastructure, continuing population loss and changing political dynamics are challenges for any candidate, much less an incumbent who may not have satisfied voter expectations.

It’s still over five months until the July 20-22 candidate qualifying dates. However, the time frame for lining up key supporters and building campaign bank accounts is not that long for mayoral candidates.