The much ballyhooed Louisiana Economic Forecast: State and MSAs 2025 and 2026 report by Dr. Loren Scott has just been released. Scott has held several presentations of his report including one last week at the Port of Caddo-Bossier.
The Executive Summary has caveats that potentially undermine the forecasts.
"Two major uncertainties cloud our view of the future. The largest is the presidential election.
Louisiana is still a very fossil-fuel orient ed state. One candidate is very anti-fossil fuels and the other is very pro. There is a huge gap in their posit ions. Second, is the national economy in a recession or will the Fed be able to manage a "soft landing" in its fight against inflation?
Regarding the presidential election, the forecasts are presented with the understanding that actual employment will vary significantly around our point forecasts depending on who is elected. This is especially so for all of Louisiana along and below 1-10 and the Shreveport Bossier MSA. It is further assumed the Fed will manage a soft landing, or if a recession occurs, it will be short and shallow.
It is assumed that oil prices--mainly through OPEC management--will hoover in the $80-$82 a barrel range and that natural gas prices will rise from unusually low levels in 2024 to about $3.10 per mm BTU in 2026 due to increased demand from LNG exporters. The price gap between US. natural gas and prices in Asia and Europe will continue to spur a major industrial boom in south Louisiana."
A third factor that is not mentioned in Scott's report is the upcoming special session of the Louisiana Legislature that Governor Landry wants to convene in November. Landry wants a complete rewrite of Louisiana's tax system. Few details are known at this time. However, Landry does want to end several programs that give big breaks to businesses.
The state's film tax credit program has been a target in recent legislative sessions. There is speculation that this program will be substantially changed in sense of less tax credits. It’s possible the program could be abolished in its entirety.
Scott' reports that Troubled Muse will spend $25 million over five years to build an animation/movie studio in Bossier City. Scott says employment is projected to grow to 648 in 2025 and rise to 827 in 2026. Any reduction in the film tax credit program could greatly affect these projections for Trouble Muse.
It’s unfortunate that the report was not delayed until after the presidential election. If it had, there could have been more definitive forecasting. His report does include unrefuted factual information on boosts to the local economy which will be reported in a follow up column.
Additionally, any substantive changes will most likely impact the film/production plans of Curtis "50 Cent" Jackson, who has leased the former Millennium Studios. Scott's report did not mention Jackson.